New Economic Theory · 2025

The White
Swan
Economy

Resources, Algorithms
and the Birth of New Money

by QR 扫我

The Core Equation

B = WEALTH
(W, E, A, L, T, H)
W
Water
E
Energy
A
Algorithms
L
Land
T
Time
H
Human Capital
B = WEALTH(W,E,A,L,T,H) V = f(E) · Value as a function of Energy GARU · Global Algorithmic Resource Unit Physics doesn't negotiate $630 trillion derivatives vs $100 trillion real GDP Infraномics · The New Economic Philosophy B = WEALTH(W,E,A,L,T,H) V = f(E) · Value as a function of Energy GARU · Global Algorithmic Resource Unit Physics doesn't negotiate $630 trillion derivatives vs $100 trillion real GDP Infraномics · The New Economic Philosophy
"A quadrillion dollars of derivatives exists above a real economy of a hundred trillion. This is not wealth — this is a hallucination. Hallucinations, sooner or later, end."

— QR · The White Swan Economy · 2025

The Argument

Three ideas
that change everything

01
Money lost its connection to physical reality
Since 1971, when Nixon severed the dollar from gold, the financial system has been building an ever-growing hallucination. The derivative market is 6–10 times the size of the real economy. The scales are broken.
02
Value is a function of energy — V = f(E)
Every dollar, yuan, and rouble represents a chain of energy transformations. The joule-standard isn't a metaphor — it's a physical claim. Georgescu-Roegen proved it in 1971. The world wasn't listening. Now it must.
03
GARU — the new unit of the algorithmic age
The Global Algorithmic Resource Unit anchors money to physical reality: water, energy, land, time, human capital. In 2035 Astana, the first major public contract is settled in GARU. History doesn't ask permission.
How the book is written

QR talks to the machine.
The machine talks back.

Every chapter contains a live dialogue between QR and an AI — GPT-5, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet. Not as illustration. As method. The argument is built in real time, in public, with a system that cannot be bribed or flattered.

Astana, autumn 2035. A contract worth 18 billion GARU appears on the screen. A grey-haired American in an expensive suit says quietly: "This is impossible. These contracts are denominated in dollars." His neighbour shrugs: "They used to be."
QR → GPT-5 Do you see this? The first major public contract in GARU at an international forum.
AI I see it. According to the registry, this is already the sixty-fourth GARU contract this year. But the first of this scale.
QR What are the markets saying?
AI The dollar index fell 0.3% in the last twenty minutes. Oil futures in dollars dropped 1.1%. This is a reaction.
QR It begins.
AI Or continues. The first GARU contract was signed three years ago — also here in Kazakhstan, only in a smaller room.
Chapter I. The Great Disconnection. One scale holds everything humanity produced in a year — $100 trillion of real goods. The other holds paper. Derivatives. Bets on bets on bets.
QR → Claude Opus 4 Explain to me how Nixon's decision changed the nature of money. Not politically — physically.
AI Before 1971, the dollar was tied to gold at a fixed rate. Gold requires real costs to extract — energy, labour, infrastructure. Money was indirectly tied to physical costs.
QR And after?
AI After — money became created from trust. The central bank decides how much money the economy "needs." This decision is political, not physical. There are no physical constraints anymore — only political ones.
QR And the quadrillion in derivatives — is that the accumulated gap over fifty years?
AI Exactly. It is the mathematical description of a system that spent fifty years substituting financial convention for physical reality.
Chapter I. The Three Gorges Dam produces 100 billion kWh per year — roughly what Austria consumes. It has no ticker symbol. Goldman Sachs publishes no quarterly reports on it. And yet it produces value every second of every day.
QR → GPT-4 Let's compare the Three Gorges Dam with the largest derivative portfolio. Which is more real?
AI In a physical sense — incomparably. The dam produces 100 billion kWh annually. The derivative portfolio produces... records in a computer.
QR But the derivative portfolio is worth trillions.
AI Worth it in the moment people believe in it. The dam is worth it regardless of belief. Water flows downhill even if every bank in the world goes bankrupt simultaneously.
QR Exactly. That is the difference between Infraномics and financialisation. One system builds — the other believes.
AI You describe what Keynes called "animal spirits" — but in reverse. Instead of "we believe, therefore we grow" — "we build, therefore we grow."
Chapter I. The formula being born. QR is working on the biophysical production function. The traditional Y = f(K, L) hides the physical reality. Something is missing.
QR → Claude Sonnet 4 I have a formula for biomass: B = f(W, E, L, H). It is incomplete. What is missing?
AI Looking from the perspective of the 21st century — algorithms are missing. Between physical resources and their use, there is now a computational layer. An irrigation system without an algorithm and one with — these are fundamentally different systems with the same W.
QR Good. And what else? How to include Time?
AI Time as T — the infrastructure horizon. A dam with a 50-year horizon is fundamentally different from a quarterly budget. T is the element that financial models systematically undervalue through discounting.
QR So: B = f(W, E, A, L, T, H). WEALTH. Wealth.
AI This is not just a mnemonic. It is a statement about the nature of wealth: it is physical, algorithmically amplified, and unfolds in time. Neither gold nor paper appears in this formula.
QR Exactly so. Neither gold nor paper.

"Physics doesn't negotiate. Sooner or later, broken scales get fixed — or thrown away. And new ones are already being built."

V = f(E)
The method

算法共识
Algorithmic Consensus

At the end of every chapter, four voices speak. The Scientist. Thomas Wade. Han Fei. QR. Each from a different position, a different civilisation, a different century. Truth, the author believes, is born in the collision of perspectives — not in monologue.

The Scientist · Georgescu-Roegen, 1971
"The economic process is biological, not mechanical. It is irreversible. An economy that ignores this is condemned to reproduce illusions, not value. Every crisis is the moment when reality presents its bill to illusion."

Nicolae Georgescu-Roegen · The Entropy Law and the Economic Process · 1971
Published the same year Nixon severed the dollar from gold. Nobody was listening.

Thomas Wade · Western Economist
"The Bretton Woods negotiators in 1944 spent three weeks arguing about gold reserves. Nobody spent three minutes asking: what does money actually represent physically? They chose trust. Fifty years later, trust turned out to be a balloon. Physics is not a balloon. We are now building a system where the balloon is tethered to physics. You cannot argue with a joule."

Composite voice · The pragmatic Western reformer who understands the system must change.

Han Fei · State Strategist
"When the West was building derivatives, we were building roads. When they were building CDOs, we were building dams. When they were building synthetic CDO²s, we were building solar panel factories. Now we have roads, dams, and factories. They have memories of CDO²s."

The voice of the infrastructure state · The long-horizon planner · T in the WEALTH formula.

QR · Author
"My academic work began with a simple question: why is Central Asia poor, having so much sun, land, and water? The answer: there are no algorithms that correctly value these resources. The financial system does not see them — because it does not look at physics. GARU is an attempt to make money look where it should have been looking all along."

From the margins of a notebook · Bishkek · 2019 · V = f(E)

— ※ —
The New Currency
Global Algorithmic Resource Unit

What is
GARU?

GARU is a unit of exchange anchored not to gold, not to political convention, but to the physical world: verified terawatt-hours of energy, cubic kilometers of water, hectares of productive land.

Where the dollar is a promise, GARU is a measurement. Where the derivative is a hallucination, GARU is a physical fact. This is not speculation — it is the inevitable return of money to physics.

Request White Paper
$630T
Global derivatives (BIS)
$100T
Real world GDP
64×
GARU contracts (2035, fiction)
18B
GARU — first major contract
QR
QR
Economist · Somewhere between Bishkek and Beijing · 2025

QR
Economist.
Physicist of money.

QR is an economist from Central Asia. The initials are the brand — the person behind them prefers to let the ideas speak first.

The work began with an uncomfortable question: why do nations rich in water, land, and sun remain financially poor? Why does the financial system not see their wealth? That question led through the biophysical economics of Hall, the entropy theory of Georgescu-Roegen, and ultimately to the formula written in the margins of a notebook in 2019: V = f(E).

QR

Black and white dots
that become money.

China · 二维码 · The Magic
扫一下

For a billion Chinese, the QR code is a daily miracle: black and white dots that literally become money. WeChat Pay. Alipay. A street vendor, a temple, a Michelin restaurant — all the same gesture: point, scan, pay.

This book is about the same transformation. Algorithms — patterns, codes, dots of logic — becoming the foundation of a new economy. QR is the metaphor made literal.

China · 健康码 · The Trust
信任

In China, QR is not a link — it is a digital passport. The 健康码 (jiànkāng mǎ — health code) of the pandemic era taught an entire civilization: if something has a QR code, it officially exists. It is trusted. It is real.

GARU — the new unit of exchange proposed in this book — works on exactly the same principle. Not a convention. Not a promise. A verified, trusted, scannable fact.

"The QR code doesn't explain itself.
It doesn't need to.
You just point — and it opens."
— QR · on the nature of codes and ideas
Scan
Code
Money
Trust
Behind the code
Kubatbek Rahimov · PhD · Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
PhD in Economics · PhD candidate, Political Science · Bishkek–Beijing
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